Unpacking the “One Big Beautiful Bill”: An Analysis of Trump’s Proposed Budget

By Joel Wong

Donald Trump’s proposed 2026 budget, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” marks a dramatic reshaping of federal priorities. It significantly boosts defense and homeland security spending while slashing non-defense discretionary programs, especially in health, housing, education, science, and climate. The budget aligns with Trump’s MAGA and MAHA agendas and draws heavily from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk.

Key Elements:

Spending Cuts: $163 billion in non-defense discretionary cuts. Major reductions target the NIH (37%), CDC (40%), HUD (44%), NSF (50%), and the Department of Education (15%). Entire programs like LIHEAP (low-income energy aid) and NEA are eliminated.

Spending Increases: Defense rises 13% (~$893 billion total), including $25 billion for a missile shield. Homeland Security grows 65% ($43.8 billion) to fund deportations and border enforcement. Modest increases go to veterans’ care and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s MAHA health initiatives.

Tax Policy: Extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), estimated to cost $4.5–$6.8 trillion over a decade. Includes new tax exemptions for tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, and repeals the SALT cap—largely benefiting high-income earners.

Tariffs: New tariffs on 70% of U.S. imports aim to raise $2.1 trillion over 10 years but are projected to reduce GDP by 0.7% due to likely foreign retaliation.

Deficit Impact:
Despite tariff revenues, independent forecasts from the Tax Foundation and Penn Wharton Budget Model project that the budget would increase the federal deficit by $2.5 to $6.8 trillion over 10 years, depending on assumptions. The primary driver is the extension of unfunded tax cuts, which are not offset by equivalent spending reductions. This raises long-term concerns about fiscal sustainability, interest costs, and national debt accumulation.

In sum, the budget reflects a clear ideological vision: prioritize national security and tax relief for the wealthy, while dramatically downsizing the federal role in social welfare and public investment—at the cost of expanding deficits and inequality.